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Development and Validation of a Deep Neural Network Model for Prediction of Postoperative In-hospital Mortality
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Background: To date, the independent predictors and outcomes of unplanned postoperative intubation (UPI ) in pediatric patients after noncardiac surgery are yet to be characterized. The authors aimed to identify the incidence and predictors of this event and evaluated the effect of this event on postoperative mortality.
Methods: Data of 87,920 patients from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Pediatric database were analyzed and assigned to derivation (n = 58,614; 66.7%) or validation (n = 29,306; 33.3%) cohorts. The derivation cohort was analyzed for the incidence and independent predictors of early UPI . The final multivariable logistic regression model was validated using the validation cohort.
Results: Early UPI occurred with an incidence of 0.2% in both cohorts. Among the 540 patients who experienced a UPI, 178 (33.0%) were intubated within the first 72 h after surgery. The final logistic regression model indicated operation time, severe cardiac risk factors, American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status classification more than or equal to 2, tumor involving the central nervous system, developmental delay/impaired cognitive function, past or current malignancy, and neonate status as independent predictors of early UPI . Having an early UPI was associated with an increased risk of unadjusted, all-cause 30-day mortality, demonstrating an odds ratio of 11.4 (95% CI, 5.8 to 22.4).
Conclusions: Pediatric patients who experienced an early UPI after noncardiac surgery had an increased likelihood of unadjusted 30-day mortality by more than 11-fold. Identification of high-risk patients can allow for targeted intervention and potential prevention of such outcomes.
CME Credit: 1.00 AMA PRA Category 1 Credit™
Required Hardware / Software:Adobe Acrobat Reader, Internet connection. Web browser version must have been released within the last three years.
Activity Release Date:10/18/2016
Activity Expiration Date:10/17/2019
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Learning Objectives:After successfully completing this activity, the learner will be able to do the following:
Recognize the risk factors for unplanned postoperative intubation (UPI) in pediatric patients.
Adjust clinical management based on the effect of UPI in pediatric patients.
Recognize the associated long-term consequences of UPI in pediatric patients.
Faculty & Credentials:
Editor-in-Chief: Evan D. Kharasch, M.D., Ph.D., has reported receiving consulting fees from TEN Healthcare and The Medicines Co., and honoraria from Astra-Zeneca.
Editor-in-Chief Emeritus: James C. Eisenach, M.D., receives consulting fees from Aerial BioPharma LLC and Cubist Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
CME Editors: Leslie C. Jameson, M.D. has reported no relevant financial relationships with commercial interests. Dan J. Kopacz, M.D., has an equity position in SoloDex, LLC.
Authors: Eric C. Cheon, M.D., Hannah L. Palac, M.S., Kristine H. Paik, M.D., John Hajduk, B.S., Gildasio S. De Oliveira, M.D., M.S.C.I., and Santhanam Suresh, M.D., report no relevant financial relationships with commercial interests. Narasimhan Jagannathan, M.D., reports having received honoraria from Teleflex.
ASA Staff: Kari L. Lee, Editorial Manager, has reported no financial relationships with commercial interests. Ginger Clark, Senior Editor, has an equity position in Merck & Co.
Disclosure StatementThe American Society of Anesthesiologists remains strongly committed to providing the best available evidence-based clinical information to participants of this educational activity and requires an open disclosure of any potential conflict of interest identified by our faculty members. It is not the intent of the American Society of Anesthesiologists to eliminate all situations of potential conflict of interest, but rather to enable those who are working with the American Society of Anesthesiologists to recognize situations that may be subject to question by others. All disclosed conflicts of interest are reviewed by the educational activity course director/chair to ensure that such situations are properly evaluated and, if necessary, resolved. The American Society of Anesthesiologists educational standards pertaining to conflict of interest are intended to maintain the professional autonomy of the clinical experts inherent in promoting a balanced presentation of science. Through our review process, all American Society of Anesthesiologists CME activities are ensured of independent, objective, scientifically balanced presentations of information. Disclosure of any or no relationships will be made available for all educational activities.
The information provided at this CME activity is for continuing education purposes only and is not meant to substitute for the independent medical judgment of a healthcare provider relative to diagnostic and treatment options of a specific patient’s medical condition.
Core Competencies:Medical knowledge
Target Audience:ANESTHESIOLOGY Journal CME is intended for anesthesiologists. Researchers and other health care professionals with an interest in anesthesiology may also participate.
CME Credit: 1.00 AMA PRA Category 1 Credit™
The American Society of Anesthesiologists is accredited by the Accreditation Council for Continuing Medical Education to provide continuing medical education for physicians.
The American Society of Anesthesiologists designates this journal-based CME activity for a maximum of 1.00 AMA PRA Category 1 Credit(s)™. Physicians should claim only the credit commensurate with the extent of their participation in the activity.
1.00 Non-physician Credit Non-physicians may receive a Certificate of Completion stating that this activity was designated for 1.00 AMA PRA Category 1 Credit(s)™.
Activity Release Date: 10/18/2016 Activity Expiration Date: 10/17/2019
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